"On January 13, the United States National Intelligence Council (N.I.C.) released the report of its '2020 Project,' which is aimed at describing the possible configurations of world politics fifteen years from now. ' "'With the mission of providing 'policymakers with the best unvarnished and unbiased information regardless of whether analytic judgments conform to U.S. policy,' the N.I.C. reports to the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (C.I.A.), but is independent of the C.I.A. and is charged with preparing analyses based on the findings of the entire U.S. intelligence community. Almost all of its reports -- "National Intelligence Estimates" -- are classified and concern specific policy issues. Every five years, the N.I.C. goes public with a general look at the medium-term global future. "'Project 2020' is based on consultations with a variety of experts from inside and outside the U.S. government. Preparations for the latest report involved the widest outreach yet -- more than 1,000 specialists were consulted from around the world. From the multitude of divergent judgments and specialized perspectives gathered in its inquiry, the N.I.C. attempted to identify the dominant "trends" that will determine the pattern of global politics, projecting "scenarios" -- rather than formulating strategies -- based on the development of one or more of those trends." The Report has important implications for Latin America: "A partial contraction of Washington's global reach would not spell a simple diminution of its power were it to retrench its North American base and then focus on South America, where Brasilia has yet to achieve its aim of becoming an unchallenged regional power center. South America might become a shared sphere of influence if Washington shifts resources and enhances economic support to the western hemisphere. Such a shift would involve more generous aid, trade and immigration policies that would trigger domestic political opposition in the U.S., but it offers promise for Washington in a multipolar world in which power is becoming regionalized." "...The
Council's message is clear, if not explicit: realistic pursuit
of U.S. interests will involve a shift from military to diplomatic
power; rather than trying to become the arbiter of globalization,
Washington is best served by becoming an honest broker, a conflict
resolver and a reconciler. " |